Risk7 min read
Contingency is not padding
Contingency is the expected cost of known uncertainties, priced. Where the number comes from, who owns it, and how to defend it in front of a board.
July 30, 2026Read
Risk7 min read
Presenting a range without losing the room
Owners want one number. The estimate is a distribution. How to show P10, P50 and P90 so decision-makers use them instead of ignoring them.
April 8, 2026Read
Risk8 min read
Escalation is a risk, not a footnote
The assumed escalation rate deserves the same scrutiny as any other line. How to price it by commodity, cash-flowed to the midpoint of spend.
February 25, 2026Read